Regardless of the severe weather potential we all need to be aware that winds behind the cold front will be stout. 20-25 miles per hour with gusts 10-15 miles per hour higher. Now, on to the possibility of severe weather. It’s being over hyped like the last system, but the threat is appreciable, especially for the lakes area.
Houston – not so much. Rain? Yes. Thunderstorms? Likely yes. But the air above the surface is warmer than the surface, and that’s not conducive to severe weather since it stops air from moving higher in the atmosphere. However, with a cold front pushing through the air eventually will lift, and at least thunderstorms will form at some point.
Triangle – I’m not saying yes, but not saying no either. The amount of warm air above the surface will be much less. The wind profile isn’t great, but not awful either. Rain and thunderstorms at least. Depending on how/when things develop a line of severe storms is certainly a possibility. Still, if it does happen, it’s just a line of strong to severe storms. Nothing to be too worried about. We go through this every year many times a year. It’s something that will drive outdoor activities indoors and then passes.
Lakes – same as the triangle, but, the atmosphere is even less warm aloft. This means a slightly better chance for a severe line to develop.
If severe weather does form wind is the most likely threat, but hail is a possibility. Brownsville-Corpus-Dallas line has a classic “loaded gun” vertical profile for wind and hail. Lake Charles- Shreveport line does not. I expect Houston to be more like the western profile, and the triangle like Lake Charles eastern profile. This means if severe weather does develop, the winds in Houston are likely to be higher than the winds in the triangle.